Fri, Oct 10, 2008 6:10pm ET

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On Dobbs, radio host claimed HUD said "about 5 million illegal alien home mortgage loans ... have gone bad," but HUD reportedly says stat is bogus

Summary: On Lou Dobbs Tonight, Roger Hedgecock claimed that the Department of Housing and Urban Development "was talking about 5 million illegal alien home mortgage loans that have gone bad." But Hedgecock did not cite a source for the purported HUD statistic. In fact, an article published more than an hour before Lou Dobbs Tonight aired reported that HUD "says there is no basis to news reports that more than 5 million bad mortgages are held by illegal immigrants" and that "a HUD spokesman said his agency has no data showing the number of illegal immigrants holding foreclosed or bad mortgages."
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Posted by tommy

I would say this is a good catch by MMFA, apparently this myth got out there and the lazy media ran with it without verifying it's accuracy. 

Nice job.

Posted by snoopy in reply to tommy

Tommy, I believe Wes does not agree with you... ;)

Posted by National_Insecurity in reply to tommy

Sorry kids, statistically this is a near-impossible number for a lot of reasons.  It's like the guy who claims "99% of X is true."  When you hear claims like this, they're false. What's absurd is that the US Census Bureau put out a press release on Monday Oct 6 that gives most of the numbers to knock this fallacy into another timezone.  see www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/housing/012760.html

Let me set out to bore the hell out of you with facts.

1) The number of occupied housing units in the US is only 110 million (out of 128 million total, 3 million of these are seasonal.  Another 10+ million are vacant.)

2) Census reports about 31.7% of these housing units are rentals.  Census and HUD report 75.6 million owner occupied homes, including mobile homes.

3) Let's do a quick test, what would 5 million "illegal" home buyers be of 75.6 million homes?  That's 6.6% of ALL home owners in US.  Does that make sense?  Nope. Your MBA prof would give you an F, because the census bureau says that 12.5% of ALL American residents are Hispanic. This means that for 5 million to be possible, HALF of ALL Hispanics would have to be illegal homeowners - kids included.  I should note in my area that many people from China, Ireland, Central America and Eastern Europe are in the US with questionable documentation, but for some reason these demographic groups are rarely mentioned.

But wait, there's more illogic to explode.

4) Not every home has a mortgage. "Among the 75.6 million homes that were owner-occupied, 24.9 million units, or one in three, were owned free and clear without a mortgage."  source: Census Bureau  That leaves 50 million homes with mortgages.

5) So 5 million would be OVER 10% of ALL homes with mortgages. But wait, there's more illogic.

A related stat is that subprime ARMs (the most likely mortgage available to undocumented borrowers) represent 6 percent of the loans outstanding, or 3 million homes. Again, far short of 5 million.

Prime ARMs represent 15 percent of the loans outstanding, about 7.5 million homes. "Illegals" couldn't get a prime ARM without docs.

6) The TOTAL number of properties on which some foreclosure actions was taken in 2007 was 1.3 million properties. But not every one of those was foreclosed, some were sold or redeemed.  

OK, has that debunked the Lou Dobbs fantasy?

7) I'm sure that someone will suggest "It's possible that 5 million could be coming."  Go back and re-read earlier numbers.  It's possible that 5 million home owners may be in financial trouble, but it's impossible for them to all, or even mostly be "illegal" immigrants.

Hey Lou, want to do your own research? You get paid a lot more than me, a mere REALTOR who tries to make a living.   Census Bureau, HUD and Mortgage Bankers Association (mortgagebankers.org). As Home Depot says, "You can do it, we can help."

Posted by BillJ-MN in reply to National_Insecurity

OK, has that debunked the Lou Dobbs fantasy? - National Insecurity

You didn't debunk it.  You killed, gutted, processed and devoured it.  Not a trace of it remains to be defended.  Excellent job.

Posted by National_Insecurity in reply to BillJ-MN

Thanks BillJ-MN.  Tasted like a nice alder-roasted salmon to me.

errata  - I should have noted that it was Roger Hedgecock, not Lou Dobbs, who made the obviously false statement.  Numbers are my specialty.

Posted by wesley

Careful mmfa. You jumped to the immediate conclusion that the story on Dobb's show is false. The evidence? Some guy named Brian, who won't give his last name...and an unnamed "spokesman" from HUD.

This could prove to be thin ice...

Posted by Col. Harlan Sanders in reply to wesley

I believe Dobbs is citing HUD as his source. One person from HUD says the total number of immigrants(not necessarily illegal) is nowhere near the 5 million, another HUD source doesn't provide a figure, and HUD issues a statement saying the 5 million number isn't accurate.

A retired customs official says it's right.

Yep, that's some thin ice there, Wesley.

Posted by eweston8542983 in reply to Col. Harlan Sanders

Illegal immigrant, I'm sure there's a box to check for that when you apply for your home loan. And upon sucessful completion, a nice brown star to wear till the loan is paid off.

Posted by neon desert in reply to eweston8542983

I'm willing to accept the 5 million number.

And to accept the 5 mil number means that one has to accept that about 5 MILLION times, the professional mortgage lenders, the professional appraisers, and the professional credit ratings companies - people who do this 8 hours a day and 5 days a week - screwed up and combined to hand out a bad loan to someone who wasn't even a U.S. citizen and without valid financial or insufficient financial background.

Sorry, but after thinking about that, I have a hard time blaming illegal aliens...

Posted by pete592 in reply to neon desert

Oh come on, that's only 5 million phony Social Security numbers, all complete with phony credit records.  It could happen!!!  :-D

Posted by archfiend in reply to pete592

And, since there are supposed to be something like 12 million illegal immigrants in the US, this means that almost half of them are homeowners who are behind in their mortgages.

Posted by BillJ-MN

I'm prepared for some right-wing logic. "Oh, yeah? Well prove it's not true!!"

Posted by jjamele2880

Why anyone takes that crook Hedgecock seriously, I will never understand.  Notice how many of these Conservative yakkers are former guests of the penal system?